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June 29, 2007

Climate Change: It Just Gets Better

I'm practically tripping over interesting news these days on climate change.  The latest: statements from IPCC's Kevin Trenberth calling into question the computer modeling used extensively by IPCC, Al Gore, and others to justify the current doomsday scenarios:

Since the last report it is also often stated that the science is settled or done and now is the time for action.

In fact there are no predictions by IPCC at all. And there never have been. The IPCC instead proffers “what if” projections of future climate that correspond to certain emissions scenarios.  But they do not consider many things like the recovery of the ozone layer, for instance, or observed trends in forcing agents. There is no estimate, even probabilistically, as to the likelihood of any emissions scenario and no best guess.

In the words of the Courier-Mail's Bob Carter,

There is no predictive value in the current generation of computer GCMs and therefore the alarmist IPCC statements about human-caused global warming are unjustified.

Indeed.

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