Is Al Qaeda Glad We're In Iraq? And Does that Matter?

Russell wondered a few weeks back whether global terrorist organizations are glad that we're in Iraq.  While the question may be new to Russell, it's been an article of faith on the activist left since at least 2006 that they are indeed glad, as seen, for example, in this release by Senator Russ Feingold.  The truth is, we can speculate about all manner of crazy things.  The real question is whether there is enough credible evidence to conclude that the premise is true.

Here’s some data on the matter that appears to come from Al-Qaeda itself, via quotes from documents released by the US military in February:

…”The Islamic State of Iraq [al-Qaeda] is faced with an extraordinary crisis, especially in al-Anbar province. Al-Qaeda’s expulsion from Anbar created weakness and psychological defeat. This also created panic, fear and the unwillingness to fight.

That doesn't sound like gladness to me, but maybe the author is just a glass-is-half-empty sort of person.  He is a terrorist, after all.  How is the recruiting going?

“The morale of the fighters went down and they wanted to be transferred to administrative positions rather than be fighters. There was a total collapse in the security structure of the organization.”

So at least recruiting for the mail room is up.  Here’s a different document:

“There were almost 600 fighters in our sector before the tribes changed course 360 degrees . . . Many of our fighters quit and some of them joined the deserters . . . As a result of that the number of fighters dropped down to 20 or less.”

“We were mistreated, cheated and betrayed by some of our brothers who used to be part of the Jihadi movement, therefore we must not have mercy on those traitors until they come back to the right side or get eliminated completely.”

This last, by the way, is a quote from an al-Qaeda leader’s diary recovered by the 101^st Airborne Division on the occasion of my 40th birthday.  What a thoughtful gift.

To judge from these documents, it appears that as of the middle of last year, there are some elements within al Qaeda very much not glad we're in Iraq.  But let's assume, for the sake or argument, that these documents are an anomaly.  Suppose global terrorist organizations are glad that we’re in Iraq.  What does that tell us?  Only that our enemy believes our being in Iraq benefits them.  Does that mean we shouldn't be in Iraq?  Of course not.  For one thing, the enemy could be wrong.  They could be glad we're in Iraq because they believe it benefits them, when on balance it does not.  It wouldn’t be the first time Al-Qaeda miscalculated the outcome of a gambit on the battlefield.  They doubtless believed their brutality in Anbar would benefit them as well, yet the evidence suggests that it harmed them greatly, turning the population against them, and toward us.

On balance, I'd rather see us concentrate on what is real, rather than on what the terrorists think is real, and pursue our objectives in Iraq on those terms.

Comments

[Russell Lutz]

I'm afraid I can't get past the "changed course 360 degrees" comment. Yikes! Don't these terrorist know basic trigonometry?!