“Unexpectedly”

“You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”
                                                     —Inigo Montoya, The Princess Bride

A sampling of recent headlines:
Today: Jobless claims rise unexpectedly
February 5: US unemployment rate falls unexpectedly, but job losses continue
January 21: Initial jobless claims unexpectedly climb
December 31: US new jobless claims fall unexpectedly
November 4: New jobless benefit claims rise unexpectedly
October 22: New Jobless Claims Up Unexpectedly to 531K
September 24: US home sales, jobless claims drop unexpectedly

Maybe it’s just me, but the word “unexpectedly” in this context is starting to annoy.  An occasional miss, and I’ll give you that the story should be about what unemployment “unexpectedly” did.  When we’re missing the forecast every month, on the other hand, the real story is that our system for setting expectations is crap, yet we keep citing it.  Maybe it’s time to set lower expectations for our ability to predict the future, and stop reporting every number as if it’s a surprise?